Horse racing handicapping if filled with nuances and subtleties. The problem is that many times we miss them and wind up paying the price with our horse racing profits. A good example is that betting on winter races is different from betting on summer races.
Why are the seasons important when picking winners at the horse track? Why should you bet horse races differently according to the season? There are several reasons…
- It may be the mating season
- The weather may affect the track
- The crowd handicaps and bets differently
Let’s look at number one first. In the spring a young horse may have something other than racing on its mind. Horses are living creatures and if you have been around them long you will know what I mean when I tell you that a filly or mare who comes in season or a stallion who is feeling the call of nature and procreation have a strong drive and can get pretty headstrong, even dangerous.
Now let’s look at the second consideration, the weather. This has an immediate effect and a delayed effect. Because the weather may be more unsettled and inclement in the winter, the summer offers a more consistent track surface and more favorable conditions. Therefore the weather is less of a consideration in the summer. Also, since the horses’ last races may have been fairly recent, those last races may have been run on a fast track and you will not have to make so many adjustments when looking at past performances over “off” tracks.
And finally, there is the crowd. Typically, there are larger crowds at the race track in the summer. Some of the summer track attendees are only casual race goers or even tourists just out to try something new or different. Many of these people are not sophisticated bettors and it often shows in how they handicap or wager on races. They will either play according to a whim or fancy, i.e. the horse with the pretty name or tail, or they will bet the favorite since it seems to be the most popular one. That is a real opportunity for a good handicapper. There is more money in the pools to be won by using good handicapping methods. The news is not all bad for winter handicappers, though. Just remember that track biases are usually more pronounced in the winter and each track has its own characteristics that may be more pronounced in the winter or during bad weather.
Whether it is winter, spring, summer or fall, the most important factor is always how well you prepare and whether you are systematic in your approach to handicapping. Like the old saying goes, “Nothing beats a good system over time.”
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.
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